Autumn Statement
George Osborne outlines his plans for the economy
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FROM ANDREW GRICE, Political Editor: Ministers called to the Treasury this morning for a read-out of the Chancellor’s autumn statement were told that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) fiscal watchdog will blame global conditions, notably the eurozone turmoil, for the UK’s lower than expected growth and higher than expected borrowing. In other words, George Osborne will have some “cover” for an embarrassing set of OBR figures. So that’s alright then. -

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NIGEL MORRIS, Deputy Political Editor: Chancellor George Osborne told the Cabinet today that the country was “on the right track” economically as he briefed it on the contents of this afternoon’s Autumn Statement.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “The central message is that Britain is on the right track, that we are dealing with our deficit and debts in a fair way.
“That means that everyone must make a contribution, that we are equipping Britain to succeed in the global race.” -
Chancellor has briefed Cabinet on Autumn Statement – we are on the right track and making progress.by David Cameron via twitter 12/5/2012 11:26:17 AM -

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OLIVER WRIGHT, Whitehall Editor: One of the key things to look for in today’s Autumn Statement – although almost certainly not in George Osborne’s Commons speech - is what has happened to the UK’s ‘fiscal hole’ or the difference between what we spend and borrow.
Back in May 2010 George Osborne promised to eliminate this by 2015. That’s certainly not going to happen. But figures released today by the Office of Budget Responsibility may well show that the hole is even bigger now than it was in 2010.
Why is that important? Well, under this Government we have had £59 billion worth of tax rises and spending cuts in an effort to eliminate this structural deficit. That’s a pretty big price to pay for no progress on the ‘fiscal hole’ at all and likely to play into Ed Balls’ refrain that the Osborne’s medicine is not working. -

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OLIVER WRIGHT, Whitehall Editor: It is interesting to see that the Liberal Democrats will be holding their own briefing on the Autumn Statement this afternoon. Normally they let the Treasury do it – but not this time.
Clearly there are going to be trade-offs between welfare cuts and tax rises on the wealthy. The Lib Dems must think they need to put their own spin on the statement – and not let Osborne’s advisors try and set the narrative. -

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The Chancellor, as has become customary for him, has set out with an exceptionally gloomy tone, blaming a previous "decade of debt" and over-spending. Already it's very clear that he will go into the next election blaming Labour, and Gordon Brown in particular, for the dismal economy. The question is whether, come 2015, that will seem a plausible argument to voters. -

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Osborne says that 600,000 more jobs than expected have been created: 1.2 million new jobs in total since 2010. Employment is at a record high, youth unemployment is coming down, and for every one job lost in the public sector, two new ones have been created in the private sector. The best news he has today is on jobs and he is playing that card early. -

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OLIVER WRIGHT, Whitehall Editor: Lots of spin so far in Osborne’s statement. But a few things stand out. OBR forecasts have been reduced down since the budget – and are worse than most people expected. But they have given Osborne some cover by saying that it was down to external factors and not his fault. But they are still making very optimistic growth figures for the years ahead. Many economists don’t believe these are realistic. The OBR may be independent but it is still political. -

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Whilst it's good that the deficit is falling we're still adding to our national debt and burdening our children... http://fb.me/P2L11M9Cby Nigel_Farage via twitter 12/5/2012 12:53:04 PM -
Osborne says that the difficult economic conditions mean it will take 4 years to get the deficit falling instead of 3. He has deferred the year in which debt - not the deficit - will fall relative to GDP by one year. That is an early and significant blow to his case. -

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NIGEL MORRIS, Deputy Political Editor: How George Osborne is reducing those growth predictions. He now forecasts growth of 1.2 per cent in 2013 (down from earlier prediction of 2.0 per cent), 2.0 per cent in 2014 (down from 2.7 per cent), 2.3 per cent in 2015 (down from 3.0 per cent) and 2.7 per cent in 2016 (down from 3.0 per cent).
Those are substantial downgrades. But are the Chancellor’s new figures evidence that the Government’s economic strategy is not working – or evidence that it is working a bit more slowly than originally hoped (because of the Eurozone crisis)? -
OLIVER WRIGHT, Whitehall Editor: Osborne has just announced that austerity will go on for an extra year until 2018. In short that means more public sector spending cuts and more pain for civil service. He wants to save an extra £1 billion from Whitehall – and get many more job cuts. It will be very unpopular – and more worryingly could lead to further fiascos like over the West Coast mainline franchise. -

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“Tougher economic conditions mean that while deficit is forecast to go on falling – it will take 4 years instead of 3.” #AS2012by HM Treasury via twitter 12/5/2012 12:59:14 PM -

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